Oil Prices May Decline for Oil Oversupply

For global oil sufficient supply, demands being affected by economic slowdown and demand slack season, since the early of June, American oil prices have fallen from 107 dollars per barrel to current 84 dollars per barrel. Although oil prices have declined a lot, current supply is still abundant. Adding with low prices beneficial for some countries and current high oil storages, oil prices may still in slack season.


The new data showed that the September was the continuous month that daily oil production of OPEC continued growing, increasing to 30.935 million barrels by 1.4%, which was also the highest level since August in 2013. In September, Libyan daily oil production reached 8.1 hundred thousand barrels, increasing by almost 4 times of only 2.2 hundred barrels in June. Moreover, for Iraq suffering from civil war, market had ever estimated that oil supply would be damaged. However, in September, Iraqi daily oil production still grew greatly from 2.94 million barrels to 3.2 million barrels.


Every member of OPEC is unwilling to reduce production, though oil prices have dropped substantially.Iran,Iraq,Kuwait and Saudi Arabia lower oil prices sold to Asia while increasing supply greatly. It seems that they are only aiming to seize market share of non-OPEC, forcing other oil exporters which have high cost to reduce production. In addition, it is pointed out that besides beneficial for American economy, low oil prices can be also used as economic means to sanction Russian and Iran. Nevertheless, the U.S.is quite willing to maintain low oil prices.  


Meanwhile, owing to exploitation of shale gas, American oil production in this year is a new higher level in near 30 years. Data of EIA showed that in the fist nine months of this year, American daily oil production was as high as 8.4 million barrels, increasing by 14.5%, compared with the same period of last year. In September, American daily oil production had already been 8.85 million barrels, rising by almost 80%, compared with only 5 million barrels in 2008. The U.S.leads to global oil market to enter into situation of oversupply.

Oil Prices May Decline for Oil Oversupply


Oct 25,2014
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